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Monday, October 15, 2007

4th best Full Houses and 2nd best Flushes

Full Houses
On the river when you make a Full house that is not the best full house, never raise... in fact, any time when you have the 3rd or 4th best Full house, don't raise, just call... Why ?

because if you raise and the other person moves all-in, you have no choice but to call... even though you know you might be beat or even if you know you are probably beat... why else would that person raise ?

in all reality, all you can beat at that point is a "pure" bluff... and by that i mean the flush or the straight... for example...

$1-2 NL table at the Borgata, with Q-9 of spades in the big blind, i call middle position's standard raise ($12)...
flop comes Kc-Qh-7c... he checks, i check...

turn come 9c, making a fulsh draw on the board... not to mention the possible straight...
he checks again, i bet $15... he calls...

river comes another 9... he bets $20...
my gut told me not to raise, after all, he will only call or raise if he has me beat, so there is no more money for me to win there... but i had been card dead for a while and wanted to make some money... i raise to $60...
before i had finished putting chips in, he moves all-in... i had about $100 left and he has me covered... i have to call now...
what beats me... K-K, Q-Q, K-9... so i call...
he flips over K-K...

the point is, i can only win his last bet... if he has the straight or the flush or the A-9, he is not calling a raise... what am i hoping for, he has 9-7 or that he is stupid enough to call a raise with the straight or the flush ?

so... on the river, if you have the 3rd or 4th best boat, just call...


Flushes
here's the situation... same table, same stakes... i am in the big blind...
button raises to $12 (he had been raising his button pretty much every time...)
small blind calls... (he's been playing tight but has been getting frustrated for a while now)
i call with 10-9 spades...

flop comes A-K-J all spades!
small blind bets $20... i "reluctantly" call...
button raises to $80... small blind instantly moves all-in with $350...

i have around $450... just getting back to even after that stupid full house disaster... button has about $200 left, so if i call he might call as well... what do they have.... ?

Worst case - one has a set/two pair, the other has a pair with Qs as kicker... so, if they both call, i have to avoid the boat as well as a spade...
7 outs on the turn for the guy with the set... 10 outs on the river... i.e. if anything pairs, i am done... about 35% for him... 7 outs twice for the guy with the Qs to make the nut flush... about 30%... so there is a 35% chance my hand will hold... i am actually an underdog against two opponents combined... (35% Me vs. 65% Them)

if one guy has two pair instead of a set, he has 4 outs twice... about 18-19%... and the other guy has Qs, i am even money / very slight favorite to win this hand... (50+% Me vs. 45+% Them)

if one has a set and the other have two pair or both have sets... i am a 4-1 favorite at least, depending on what set and what two pair they have... but no combination has more than 20% chance to improve in that situation... (80% Me vs. 20% Them)

In short, anything but the worst case scenario, i am at least even money or a huge favorite... of course i could be drawing dead... so basically, this is the classic A-K facing a re-raise pre-flop scenario.... do you go all-in ? or do you wait for a better spot ?

I don't know... I chose to fold in this situation... You can't lose what you don't put in the middle...

I am beginning to realize that you don't win much either....

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