Playing big slick out of position against a big stack or the second biggest stack in case you are the big stack, is tricky business... play it very carefully...
I suggest the following...
1- don't raise... cuz if you do and he re-raises, you are screwed... you can't fold... and he might have cowboys or worse bullets... and you are out of position...
2- call the hand down if you hit an A or K... no need to play aggressive against the one person on the table who can really hurt you...
3- remember, in tournaments, your focus is on the small stacks and the weaker players... stay clear of the top 3 stacks as long as possible...
Tuesday, October 23, 2007
Wednesday, October 17, 2007
What is a "Good" Poker Player ?
Poker is a fascinating game... if i had infinite amounts of money, i would play every hand and try to out play everyone on the table... every pot would be mine unless you have the nuts or you are willing to go all the way to the end to wrestle it out of my hands...
unfortunately, no one has infinte amounts of money... and that's not the point of poker anyway... calculating odds, making good reads and then trusting your instincts, patience, discipline, guts to pull the trigger... all of these combine to form the "good" poker player... and what does the good player do with all of these qualities ?
1- Create a table image of unpredictable aggression...
2- Wait for the right opportunities to exploit...
and then
3- Exploit the hell out of those opportunities when they present themselves...
on most days, most good players can do at least 2 out of 3 fairly well... and some days, they do all 3 really well...
so here's the rule from now on...
Spot weak players... and attack them mostly...
Spot strong players... and play back at them once or twice, so they back off...
Do not back away from gambles when you are ahead... even if you are not that far ahead...
unfortunately, no one has infinte amounts of money... and that's not the point of poker anyway... calculating odds, making good reads and then trusting your instincts, patience, discipline, guts to pull the trigger... all of these combine to form the "good" poker player... and what does the good player do with all of these qualities ?
1- Create a table image of unpredictable aggression...
2- Wait for the right opportunities to exploit...
and then
3- Exploit the hell out of those opportunities when they present themselves...
on most days, most good players can do at least 2 out of 3 fairly well... and some days, they do all 3 really well...
so here's the rule from now on...
Spot weak players... and attack them mostly...
Spot strong players... and play back at them once or twice, so they back off...
Do not back away from gambles when you are ahead... even if you are not that far ahead...
Monday, October 15, 2007
4th best Full Houses and 2nd best Flushes
Full Houses
On the river when you make a Full house that is not the best full house, never raise... in fact, any time when you have the 3rd or 4th best Full house, don't raise, just call... Why ?
because if you raise and the other person moves all-in, you have no choice but to call... even though you know you might be beat or even if you know you are probably beat... why else would that person raise ?
in all reality, all you can beat at that point is a "pure" bluff... and by that i mean the flush or the straight... for example...
$1-2 NL table at the Borgata, with Q-9 of spades in the big blind, i call middle position's standard raise ($12)...
flop comes Kc-Qh-7c... he checks, i check...
turn come 9c, making a fulsh draw on the board... not to mention the possible straight...
he checks again, i bet $15... he calls...
river comes another 9... he bets $20...
my gut told me not to raise, after all, he will only call or raise if he has me beat, so there is no more money for me to win there... but i had been card dead for a while and wanted to make some money... i raise to $60...
before i had finished putting chips in, he moves all-in... i had about $100 left and he has me covered... i have to call now...
what beats me... K-K, Q-Q, K-9... so i call...
he flips over K-K...
the point is, i can only win his last bet... if he has the straight or the flush or the A-9, he is not calling a raise... what am i hoping for, he has 9-7 or that he is stupid enough to call a raise with the straight or the flush ?
so... on the river, if you have the 3rd or 4th best boat, just call...
Flushes
here's the situation... same table, same stakes... i am in the big blind...
button raises to $12 (he had been raising his button pretty much every time...)
small blind calls... (he's been playing tight but has been getting frustrated for a while now)
i call with 10-9 spades...
flop comes A-K-J all spades!
small blind bets $20... i "reluctantly" call...
button raises to $80... small blind instantly moves all-in with $350...
i have around $450... just getting back to even after that stupid full house disaster... button has about $200 left, so if i call he might call as well... what do they have.... ?
Worst case - one has a set/two pair, the other has a pair with Qs as kicker... so, if they both call, i have to avoid the boat as well as a spade...
7 outs on the turn for the guy with the set... 10 outs on the river... i.e. if anything pairs, i am done... about 35% for him... 7 outs twice for the guy with the Qs to make the nut flush... about 30%... so there is a 35% chance my hand will hold... i am actually an underdog against two opponents combined... (35% Me vs. 65% Them)
if one guy has two pair instead of a set, he has 4 outs twice... about 18-19%... and the other guy has Qs, i am even money / very slight favorite to win this hand... (50+% Me vs. 45+% Them)
if one has a set and the other have two pair or both have sets... i am a 4-1 favorite at least, depending on what set and what two pair they have... but no combination has more than 20% chance to improve in that situation... (80% Me vs. 20% Them)
In short, anything but the worst case scenario, i am at least even money or a huge favorite... of course i could be drawing dead... so basically, this is the classic A-K facing a re-raise pre-flop scenario.... do you go all-in ? or do you wait for a better spot ?
I don't know... I chose to fold in this situation... You can't lose what you don't put in the middle...
I am beginning to realize that you don't win much either....
On the river when you make a Full house that is not the best full house, never raise... in fact, any time when you have the 3rd or 4th best Full house, don't raise, just call... Why ?
because if you raise and the other person moves all-in, you have no choice but to call... even though you know you might be beat or even if you know you are probably beat... why else would that person raise ?
in all reality, all you can beat at that point is a "pure" bluff... and by that i mean the flush or the straight... for example...
$1-2 NL table at the Borgata, with Q-9 of spades in the big blind, i call middle position's standard raise ($12)...
flop comes Kc-Qh-7c... he checks, i check...
turn come 9c, making a fulsh draw on the board... not to mention the possible straight...
he checks again, i bet $15... he calls...
river comes another 9... he bets $20...
my gut told me not to raise, after all, he will only call or raise if he has me beat, so there is no more money for me to win there... but i had been card dead for a while and wanted to make some money... i raise to $60...
before i had finished putting chips in, he moves all-in... i had about $100 left and he has me covered... i have to call now...
what beats me... K-K, Q-Q, K-9... so i call...
he flips over K-K...
the point is, i can only win his last bet... if he has the straight or the flush or the A-9, he is not calling a raise... what am i hoping for, he has 9-7 or that he is stupid enough to call a raise with the straight or the flush ?
so... on the river, if you have the 3rd or 4th best boat, just call...
Flushes
here's the situation... same table, same stakes... i am in the big blind...
button raises to $12 (he had been raising his button pretty much every time...)
small blind calls... (he's been playing tight but has been getting frustrated for a while now)
i call with 10-9 spades...
flop comes A-K-J all spades!
small blind bets $20... i "reluctantly" call...
button raises to $80... small blind instantly moves all-in with $350...
i have around $450... just getting back to even after that stupid full house disaster... button has about $200 left, so if i call he might call as well... what do they have.... ?
Worst case - one has a set/two pair, the other has a pair with Qs as kicker... so, if they both call, i have to avoid the boat as well as a spade...
7 outs on the turn for the guy with the set... 10 outs on the river... i.e. if anything pairs, i am done... about 35% for him... 7 outs twice for the guy with the Qs to make the nut flush... about 30%... so there is a 35% chance my hand will hold... i am actually an underdog against two opponents combined... (35% Me vs. 65% Them)
if one guy has two pair instead of a set, he has 4 outs twice... about 18-19%... and the other guy has Qs, i am even money / very slight favorite to win this hand... (50+% Me vs. 45+% Them)
if one has a set and the other have two pair or both have sets... i am a 4-1 favorite at least, depending on what set and what two pair they have... but no combination has more than 20% chance to improve in that situation... (80% Me vs. 20% Them)
In short, anything but the worst case scenario, i am at least even money or a huge favorite... of course i could be drawing dead... so basically, this is the classic A-K facing a re-raise pre-flop scenario.... do you go all-in ? or do you wait for a better spot ?
I don't know... I chose to fold in this situation... You can't lose what you don't put in the middle...
I am beginning to realize that you don't win much either....
Wednesday, October 10, 2007
Final Table of the 2007 WSOP
If you haven't seen the final table play yet, I suggest that you do right away. It has to be one of the worst games I have ever seen. The champ is an over-betting calling station who got lucky like no one's business. I don't know what prayers he was using and what the other guys were drinking, but they were just handing him money. I would love to play this guy for some serious cash. This just goes on to show that luck has such a huge affect on any given day. I personally think that they should change the format of the final table at the WSOP, some way to neutralize the luck factor somewhat. I mean, this guy Yang has to be one of the worst players I have seen. He keeps over betting with J-10, K-8, A-x... and keeps calling re-raises and keeps getting lucky... Poker can be disgustingly luck-oriented sometimes.
Tuesday, October 9, 2007
Tells
This is a topic that will be of interest forever, and it will always be evolving as people discover more and more tells... not to mention the fact that as players get better and better, they start faking them... so far, i have discovered the following tells from personal experience...
Strength
1- if someone starts making odd bets i.e. non- round numbers e.g. 1,475 or 2,150... they are definitely strong... they have something very close to the nuts and will call an all-in bet... so go ahead and put them all-in if you have the nuts... otherwise fold...
2- after making a bet, if someone starts looking around for their drink or the waitress or simply is not paying attention to what you are doing, they definitely have a strong hand and will call an all-in bet... conversely, if they start doing that before they bet or before you have bet, they are about to fold... it just shows that they have already made up their mind... obviously if they bet and have made up their mind, they are strong...
3- when people start breathing heavy, it's because their heart is beating fast which generally means that they have a strong hand... you'll know it when you see it, you'll see their chest rise significantly at a fairly high pace... same as shaky hands...
4- if someone keeps checking their hole cards, they have a monster...
5- minimum raise i.e. twice the blind or twice the amount you bet... is almost always a tell of strength...
6- going absolutely quiet is a tell of strength for most people... but beware, it is the easiest to fake also, so you need to know your opponent...
7- if someone slides their chips in very quietly as if you almost didn't notice that they raised, they are strong... but probably not too strong... they have a good hand but they are afraid of something...
8- if someone is eating food and they play a hand, they are generally strong...
Weakness
1- Someone starts talking too much... they are generally weak... accept for pros like Jamie Gold or Negraenu, who can talk at anytime....
2- Someone puts in their chips forcefully, that means they have something decent, but definitely not the nuts or close to that... for example, if there is a straight and/or flush on the board, they don't have it... they might have a set or a two-pair...
3- Someone splashes the pot, they are generally not that strong... but beware, that person is probably on tilt and will call an all-in bet out of spite...
4- When someone keeps staring at the flop or somewhere on the table but is not willing to look at you, they are afraid of something... they might have a medium pocket-pair with one or two over cards on the board...
5- when someone tries to stare you down... they are not that strong... a good idea is to ask them how many chips they have left... that'll generally make them blush or their shoulders will drop a little which is definitely a tell of weakness... that doesn't mean that they are ready to fold just yet, they might call one bet... but they will probably not call the second bet... i.e. they bet the flop (and stare at you), you raise (after asking them to count their chips)... they'll probably call... they'll check the turn, if you bet a medium amount (say 30-40% of the pot) they'll probably fold...
Strength
1- if someone starts making odd bets i.e. non- round numbers e.g. 1,475 or 2,150... they are definitely strong... they have something very close to the nuts and will call an all-in bet... so go ahead and put them all-in if you have the nuts... otherwise fold...
2- after making a bet, if someone starts looking around for their drink or the waitress or simply is not paying attention to what you are doing, they definitely have a strong hand and will call an all-in bet... conversely, if they start doing that before they bet or before you have bet, they are about to fold... it just shows that they have already made up their mind... obviously if they bet and have made up their mind, they are strong...
3- when people start breathing heavy, it's because their heart is beating fast which generally means that they have a strong hand... you'll know it when you see it, you'll see their chest rise significantly at a fairly high pace... same as shaky hands...
4- if someone keeps checking their hole cards, they have a monster...
5- minimum raise i.e. twice the blind or twice the amount you bet... is almost always a tell of strength...
6- going absolutely quiet is a tell of strength for most people... but beware, it is the easiest to fake also, so you need to know your opponent...
7- if someone slides their chips in very quietly as if you almost didn't notice that they raised, they are strong... but probably not too strong... they have a good hand but they are afraid of something...
8- if someone is eating food and they play a hand, they are generally strong...
Weakness
1- Someone starts talking too much... they are generally weak... accept for pros like Jamie Gold or Negraenu, who can talk at anytime....
2- Someone puts in their chips forcefully, that means they have something decent, but definitely not the nuts or close to that... for example, if there is a straight and/or flush on the board, they don't have it... they might have a set or a two-pair...
3- Someone splashes the pot, they are generally not that strong... but beware, that person is probably on tilt and will call an all-in bet out of spite...
4- When someone keeps staring at the flop or somewhere on the table but is not willing to look at you, they are afraid of something... they might have a medium pocket-pair with one or two over cards on the board...
5- when someone tries to stare you down... they are not that strong... a good idea is to ask them how many chips they have left... that'll generally make them blush or their shoulders will drop a little which is definitely a tell of weakness... that doesn't mean that they are ready to fold just yet, they might call one bet... but they will probably not call the second bet... i.e. they bet the flop (and stare at you), you raise (after asking them to count their chips)... they'll probably call... they'll check the turn, if you bet a medium amount (say 30-40% of the pot) they'll probably fold...
Wednesday, October 3, 2007
Always keep your eyes fixed on the ball...
For those who are not sports fans, let me explain what this means... specially in poker terms...
the phrase means two things to me....
1- just because its not your turn or the ball is not close to you in a soccer field, doesn't mean that you should goof off into lala-land... in fact, you should be paying very close attention to the proceedings... for one thing, it only takes a second for the action to come to you... but also, when you are just watching action and are not part of it, it is easiest to pick up how your opponents play... you have no involvement in that hand, so you can pick subtle things that you might miss in the heat of battle...
2- how many times have you seen a receiver take the perfect catch, and dodge everyone in the field and is almost jogging to the end zone... so often, you can tell that he's planning his victory dance and is not paying attention to his surroundings... and all of a sudden, BAM!... some guy from somewhere just hits him out of nowhere...
when you are on the table, or in the field... Always Keep Your Eyes on the Ball... when you have it in your hand as well as when it seems miles away from you... Keep Your Eyes on the Ball at all times...
why am i talking about balls and eyes... two words, Scotty Nguyen... if you did not see part 14/16 of the 2007 WSOP last night, please do so ASAP... i mean, Matusow is famous for his blow ups... and everyone goes on tilt once in a while but for god's sake... last night was painful... in all reasonability, everyone was gambling as they usually do so close to the final table, and my hero Kenny Tran also got knocked out when he made a bad call, but at least Tran was kinda card dead for a long while before he started getting flustered (not that i consider that to be an excuse, he's a professional isn't he... but i can kinda understand...)
but Scotty... one of my favorite players... went from almost certain to end up amongst the top 4-5 may be even the bracelet winner, to bust in a matter of 10-15 minutes... i mean the man has been playing immaculate poker for almost a week... i haven't seen him make any mistake whatsoever... yeah he caught some cards in some hands, but only cuz the other guy let him... he hadn't put in any bad bets whatsoever... he bluffed perfectly... he called perfectly... he folded perfectly... but something just snapped at the end...
i personally think it was that hand against the other Vietnamese guy that marked the downfall...
the guy had A-8, he raised... Scotty had J-8 in the blind, he called...
the flop came K-J-x, the guy bet Scotty called
the turn came another J, the guy bet Scotty called
river came blank, guy checked, Scotty made a value bet... and the guy folded...
Scotty for the first time in the tournament gets arrogant... don't get me wrong, he's always cocky, every good player is most of the time... but in a good way... not in a demeaning way... poker gods do not like arrogance... they like cockiness with a nice mix of humility... what's the difference ? let me tell you...
in an earlier hand a couple of days ago, Scotty has Q-Q in his hand and flop comes J-J-x...
the pre-flop raiser bets, Scotty calls...
turn comes blank, he puts Scotty all-in... Scotty gets up from the table.... thinks, thinks, thinks... and says something like, "if you got me, you got me baby"and calls... the other guy flips over A-K off suit...
river comes blank...
Scotty goes,"baby, you can out-flop me but you can not out-play me..."
Cocky but humble... beautiful... (i had tears in my eyes...)
in the hand with the Vietnamese guy i was talking about earlier, Scotty gets up and goes, "you f**k with me... you F**K with Scotty..."
Arrogant in my book...
i mean it doesn't take a genius to call with middle pair in the final stages, and then bet with trips... nothing special there, you just had a good hand and you bet it...
but the arrogance, got to him... he blew up so fast, it wasn't funny... even before this hand, he had over 10m in chips, he picked up another 2.5m in this one... there was no need to play anything since there is only 11-12 players left... 10m would have been the average on the final table... in fact, with blinds a 40-80k, if you have 10m in chips and you get hit by a bus and die right there, you will still make to the top 4-5... Stu Ungar had this kind of chips once and he couldn't make it to the final day of a trouney... (he was passed out in his hotel room because of some overdose of something...) he finished 9th (or something like that) in the that tourney...
but Scotty took his eyes of the ball, he wanted to have every one's chips right there... and he got careless... (arrogance generally has that affect on people...)
next hand, he has A-Q some guy has 5-5 and position on Scotty... flop comes Q-5-4... (the gods are angry...!)
Scotty checks, guy checks
turn comes K... Scotty checks again, guy bets, Scotty raises, guy moves all-in.... so many things beat Scotty, plus there is no reason to risk so many chips at this point with nothing but middle pair (the guy had about half as much as Scotty)... Scotty calls in a couple of seconds... he's drawing dead!
one or two hands later... Scotty has K-8 suited (spades)... flop come Q-x-x (two spades)... some guy has pocket 9-9 or something... he bets, Scotty moves all-in.... (WHY ?!) the other guy had Scotty covered... he calls...
the turn comes blank
river comes blank
Scotty is out in 11th or 12th place... what a waste... he was clearly the best player left... a moment of arrogance, a tricky hand, one bad call... you are dead... welcome to no-limit hold'em...
the phrase means two things to me....
1- just because its not your turn or the ball is not close to you in a soccer field, doesn't mean that you should goof off into lala-land... in fact, you should be paying very close attention to the proceedings... for one thing, it only takes a second for the action to come to you... but also, when you are just watching action and are not part of it, it is easiest to pick up how your opponents play... you have no involvement in that hand, so you can pick subtle things that you might miss in the heat of battle...
2- how many times have you seen a receiver take the perfect catch, and dodge everyone in the field and is almost jogging to the end zone... so often, you can tell that he's planning his victory dance and is not paying attention to his surroundings... and all of a sudden, BAM!... some guy from somewhere just hits him out of nowhere...
when you are on the table, or in the field... Always Keep Your Eyes on the Ball... when you have it in your hand as well as when it seems miles away from you... Keep Your Eyes on the Ball at all times...
why am i talking about balls and eyes... two words, Scotty Nguyen... if you did not see part 14/16 of the 2007 WSOP last night, please do so ASAP... i mean, Matusow is famous for his blow ups... and everyone goes on tilt once in a while but for god's sake... last night was painful... in all reasonability, everyone was gambling as they usually do so close to the final table, and my hero Kenny Tran also got knocked out when he made a bad call, but at least Tran was kinda card dead for a long while before he started getting flustered (not that i consider that to be an excuse, he's a professional isn't he... but i can kinda understand...)
but Scotty... one of my favorite players... went from almost certain to end up amongst the top 4-5 may be even the bracelet winner, to bust in a matter of 10-15 minutes... i mean the man has been playing immaculate poker for almost a week... i haven't seen him make any mistake whatsoever... yeah he caught some cards in some hands, but only cuz the other guy let him... he hadn't put in any bad bets whatsoever... he bluffed perfectly... he called perfectly... he folded perfectly... but something just snapped at the end...
i personally think it was that hand against the other Vietnamese guy that marked the downfall...
the guy had A-8, he raised... Scotty had J-8 in the blind, he called...
the flop came K-J-x, the guy bet Scotty called
the turn came another J, the guy bet Scotty called
river came blank, guy checked, Scotty made a value bet... and the guy folded...
Scotty for the first time in the tournament gets arrogant... don't get me wrong, he's always cocky, every good player is most of the time... but in a good way... not in a demeaning way... poker gods do not like arrogance... they like cockiness with a nice mix of humility... what's the difference ? let me tell you...
in an earlier hand a couple of days ago, Scotty has Q-Q in his hand and flop comes J-J-x...
the pre-flop raiser bets, Scotty calls...
turn comes blank, he puts Scotty all-in... Scotty gets up from the table.... thinks, thinks, thinks... and says something like, "if you got me, you got me baby"and calls... the other guy flips over A-K off suit...
river comes blank...
Scotty goes,"baby, you can out-flop me but you can not out-play me..."
Cocky but humble... beautiful... (i had tears in my eyes...)
in the hand with the Vietnamese guy i was talking about earlier, Scotty gets up and goes, "you f**k with me... you F**K with Scotty..."
Arrogant in my book...
i mean it doesn't take a genius to call with middle pair in the final stages, and then bet with trips... nothing special there, you just had a good hand and you bet it...
but the arrogance, got to him... he blew up so fast, it wasn't funny... even before this hand, he had over 10m in chips, he picked up another 2.5m in this one... there was no need to play anything since there is only 11-12 players left... 10m would have been the average on the final table... in fact, with blinds a 40-80k, if you have 10m in chips and you get hit by a bus and die right there, you will still make to the top 4-5... Stu Ungar had this kind of chips once and he couldn't make it to the final day of a trouney... (he was passed out in his hotel room because of some overdose of something...) he finished 9th (or something like that) in the that tourney...
but Scotty took his eyes of the ball, he wanted to have every one's chips right there... and he got careless... (arrogance generally has that affect on people...)
next hand, he has A-Q some guy has 5-5 and position on Scotty... flop comes Q-5-4... (the gods are angry...!)
Scotty checks, guy checks
turn comes K... Scotty checks again, guy bets, Scotty raises, guy moves all-in.... so many things beat Scotty, plus there is no reason to risk so many chips at this point with nothing but middle pair (the guy had about half as much as Scotty)... Scotty calls in a couple of seconds... he's drawing dead!
one or two hands later... Scotty has K-8 suited (spades)... flop come Q-x-x (two spades)... some guy has pocket 9-9 or something... he bets, Scotty moves all-in.... (WHY ?!) the other guy had Scotty covered... he calls...
the turn comes blank
river comes blank
Scotty is out in 11th or 12th place... what a waste... he was clearly the best player left... a moment of arrogance, a tricky hand, one bad call... you are dead... welcome to no-limit hold'em...
Tuesday, October 2, 2007
Value Betting on the River
Betting on the river is very complex business... if you have a hand, you wanna extract the most value out it... that's generally one of the the big differences between the good players and the better players... where as i might make 15-20 big blinds with top pair, top kicker, a better player would make 20-25 big blinds... and those extra blinds keep stacking up... the difference is generally the river bet or raise...
the problem is, if you start off with top pair, top kicker and don't improve your hand any further, it is very difficult to assess the strength of your hand at the end... i mean what in god's name was the other guy calling with all along... of course if there were any draws on the board and you were unable to get the guy off his hand on the flop or turn, now you gotta worry about that too... or that he started off chasing a flush or something and ended up making two pair or trips in the process... so i used to generally shut down on the river (unless i decide to bluff...) and leave it up to the poker gods to decide who gets the pot...
but over time, i have realized a few things about betting... as much as it sounds like a good idea to bet when you are ahead, it also has the drawback of semi-revealing your hand to any worthy opponent... you hit top pair, you bet, turn comes blank, bet big and make it expensive for the fish to draw the last card... the only problem is, that this works the first two times... after that everyone catches on to your play, and now they know that you don't have trips or anything and thus you can not stand any heat... you bet on the flop they call, you bet big on the turn and some sick person (like me) raises... now what do you do... do you call ?
if you are playing against any decent player, i can tell you what's coming on the river if you call the raise on the turn... another big bet to make you to twitch and twist... say... about 30-40% of the pot... (are you being bluffed or milked ?)
or, worse, you bet the flop, he calls... you bet the turn, he calls again... river comes "blank", you bet, he raises big... (and now you begin to think he hit a set somewhere or made two pair on the river... or just plain missed the draw and is bluffing... either way, tough decision)
since you were not putting true pressure early on, you have no way to know what to do now... i know betting out right is a good way to put pressure, but it doesn't rattle anyone...
i check...
you bet...
you have a pair... (big deal...!)
you have no clue what i have... (i could be slow playing a monster...)
you get the picture...
so here is what i propose and what i have been doing lately...
raise pre-flop when you have a hand you wanna play...
check-raise the flop or
bet the turn if everyone checks flop... it would bes if someone bets into you on the turn and you get to check-raise...
that would make it much easier for you to bet the river... once you have check-raised the flop or the turn, you are in a much better position to bet the river... you might even get the other person to fold two-pair with your "value" bet...
i know the downside of checking the flop and giving the other person a free card... but trust me, if they are on a draw, they are gonna call at least one bet to see the turn... and if the card they need is going to hit the turn, there is nothing you can do about it...
alternatively, you can use the same free card as a scare tactic against them... if nothing else, now when you bet the turn, they don't know what you have... regardless of what they do now, you'll have a good idea of what they have and you can decide accordingly on the river... the plus side is that since they have no clue what you have, if another scare card comes on the river, you can bluff them pretty easily...
the problem is, if you start off with top pair, top kicker and don't improve your hand any further, it is very difficult to assess the strength of your hand at the end... i mean what in god's name was the other guy calling with all along... of course if there were any draws on the board and you were unable to get the guy off his hand on the flop or turn, now you gotta worry about that too... or that he started off chasing a flush or something and ended up making two pair or trips in the process... so i used to generally shut down on the river (unless i decide to bluff...) and leave it up to the poker gods to decide who gets the pot...
but over time, i have realized a few things about betting... as much as it sounds like a good idea to bet when you are ahead, it also has the drawback of semi-revealing your hand to any worthy opponent... you hit top pair, you bet, turn comes blank, bet big and make it expensive for the fish to draw the last card... the only problem is, that this works the first two times... after that everyone catches on to your play, and now they know that you don't have trips or anything and thus you can not stand any heat... you bet on the flop they call, you bet big on the turn and some sick person (like me) raises... now what do you do... do you call ?
if you are playing against any decent player, i can tell you what's coming on the river if you call the raise on the turn... another big bet to make you to twitch and twist... say... about 30-40% of the pot... (are you being bluffed or milked ?)
or, worse, you bet the flop, he calls... you bet the turn, he calls again... river comes "blank", you bet, he raises big... (and now you begin to think he hit a set somewhere or made two pair on the river... or just plain missed the draw and is bluffing... either way, tough decision)
since you were not putting true pressure early on, you have no way to know what to do now... i know betting out right is a good way to put pressure, but it doesn't rattle anyone...
i check...
you bet...
you have a pair... (big deal...!)
you have no clue what i have... (i could be slow playing a monster...)
you get the picture...
so here is what i propose and what i have been doing lately...
raise pre-flop when you have a hand you wanna play...
check-raise the flop or
bet the turn if everyone checks flop... it would bes if someone bets into you on the turn and you get to check-raise...
that would make it much easier for you to bet the river... once you have check-raised the flop or the turn, you are in a much better position to bet the river... you might even get the other person to fold two-pair with your "value" bet...
i know the downside of checking the flop and giving the other person a free card... but trust me, if they are on a draw, they are gonna call at least one bet to see the turn... and if the card they need is going to hit the turn, there is nothing you can do about it...
alternatively, you can use the same free card as a scare tactic against them... if nothing else, now when you bet the turn, they don't know what you have... regardless of what they do now, you'll have a good idea of what they have and you can decide accordingly on the river... the plus side is that since they have no clue what you have, if another scare card comes on the river, you can bluff them pretty easily...
Monday, October 1, 2007
Weekend in AC
a friend of mine and i went to ac... he called me at 1pm on sat... we are on I-95 at 2:45pm... sat on a 1-2 table in the borgata at approx. 6:30pm... got up from that table at around 5pm on sunday... had a blast, poker is a lot of work and you get exhausted... but man is it fun!
went from about $800 in the hole to being up $1,100... ended up breaking even (actually made $20 or so)... had the best 22-1/2 hours in the world... i am willing to do this job even for $0.90/hour...
i discovered that i have a tell (one of the guys at the table was nice enough to point it out)... i go completely silent when i have the goods... i need to use this information... start talking and stop talking at odd times to throw them off...
went from about $800 in the hole to being up $1,100... ended up breaking even (actually made $20 or so)... had the best 22-1/2 hours in the world... i am willing to do this job even for $0.90/hour...
i discovered that i have a tell (one of the guys at the table was nice enough to point it out)... i go completely silent when i have the goods... i need to use this information... start talking and stop talking at odd times to throw them off...
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