Chasing vs. Betting Draws

In a no-limit game, never chase draws... probability means nothing in a one-off hand (because any good opponent will always make you pay dearly for drawing the next card)... the key assumption in probability calculations is that you can repeate the same hand over and over again... i.e. you are a computer who will play the same hand the same way infinitely... are you ?

so who cares, about the long run... if someone is willing to give you a free card or it's gonna cost way less than the price... (e.g. $5-10 into a $200 pot when you have a 10% chance of making the nuts... or $20-25 into $150 pot when you have a 40% chance of winning the pot), take that as a sign of weakness...

why not raise and give yourself two chances to win the pot... (one chance if the opponent folds, and second chance if you hit your draw)

think of it this way.... in a one-off hand, the probability of hitting your cards is actually %50 of what the long run probability is... (you have no way of knowing whether this particular hand will conform to long run averages or not)

put another way, are you gonna intentionally drive your mercedes into a wall at 30 mph because test results show that you'll probably survive the crash...

you are either ahead or you are behind in that hand, and that's all that matters... there is no prize in poker for being statistically correct in one hand... unless you have an infinite bank roll and are willing to play infinite hands exactly the same way... i.e. you are a casino... us players don't have the luxury to risk our minuscule bank rolls on long-term averages...

and remember... no good poker player will pay you off too much when you do hit your draw... may be a small value bet on the river... may be... it is so obvious when people are chasing draws... it might work in limit games (or when you play with complete idiots) but not in no limit baby... so in no limit games, you will lose money if you chase...

if you are gonna play draws... always use the draw as the backup plan while you are bluffing your opponent... don't be the chaser throughout the hand... always try to check raise if in early position, and if you are in late position and your opponent checks, bet small and re-raise if you get raised... if nothing else, it will make it look like you have a monster and you are simply value betting...

if you get called and lose money on that hand... DO NOT worry at all... your opponents will pay you off handsomely next time you do have a hand... which will be the case about once an hour or so....