Bluffing - Why, When, How...

No matter what anyone says about it, bluffing is an integral part of the game... I will go as far as saying that bluffing is just as important as knowing how to play strong hands... no good player in the world ever got anywhere without knowing how and when to effectively bluff... cards are dealt randomly, you might have good days and bad days (or weeks or months) but in the long run, you can not win on the basis of good cards alone (of course you can lose on the basis of cards alone cuz people fold when you have a strong hand)... randomness dictates that some days you'll be the windscreen and some days you'll be the bug i.e. people will walk into your monsters and you will walk into people's monsters, but neither will happen consistently forever...

statistically speaking, everything in this world is normally distributed i.e. most stuff in the middle, some really good stuff at one end and some really bad shit on the other end... but very importantly, most stuff is in the middle... you have middle pair good kicker, some guy has top pair shitty kicker, some dude has the straight draw... and even that's only half of the time... about one third of the time, no one really has anything at all...

so the key to making money at poker is to make the most out of your good hands, "steal" some or most of the middle stuff and try not to lose too much money when shit hits the fan i.e. situations when you find yourself repeating the same question in your head, "what are the chances that he has a flush when I made my set... ?" (answer: no one cares... if you think he has made the flush... fold the damn set and wait for a better spot... or would you rather lose the rest of your $400 in chips for the $140 in the pot?) of course if you can bluff someone out of a decent hand like pocket pairs e.g. 9-9, 10-10 or (top pair-weak kicker), all the better...

In order to pull off a successful bluff, you have to tell your opponents a story that they can believe... like a good magic trick, you take your audience's mind (in this case your opponent's) on a path and then just leave em there... hanging, confused and scared... here's an example...

so you have been playing tight for the past hour or so...
1) raise pre-flop to 3.5 times the big blind... (he has something!)
2) check (or check and then smoothly call) on the flop... (did he miss it and is not sure ? or did he hit in a big way and is trying to trap ?)
3) bet about 25%-30% of the pot on the turn (or again smoothly call if you are second to act or your opponent bets)... (he has a monster !? or is he just trying to steal the pot now ?)
4) and then bet about 50-70% of the pot on the river, preferably just about 40-60% of your opponents stack... (OK, I think he had the monster all along... or may be he didn't, I don't know but this is a little too much money to be catching bluffs and I have a feeling something fishy is going on and I might be getting trapped by this "please call me" kind of bet on the river...)

important: don't say a word during the hand, and take a sip of your drink or act like you are adjusting your chair... the idea is to appear completely comfortable during the hand...

also, the biggest difference most often between a genius bluff and the idiot throwing money away, is the third bullet... can you fire the appropriate third bullet on the river... ?

a lot of people raise pre-flop, then bet the flop and get called, try meekly on the turn and when they get called, they just shut down on the river... try firing on the river, and you'll be surprised how many times you succeed... but more importantly, bet on the river because it is the "right" thing to do... it is the right thing to do for three main reasons,

1- If you don't, there is no way in hell you are gonna win that pot... the other guy has something which is most likely better than your 5-6 suited that completely missed... (you now have a six high)

2- Even if you are not gonna make a big bet (i.e. 50-7 0% of the pot), fire at least 25-30% of the pot... there is always a 50% chance that your opponent will fold... and if you win half and lose half of these pots for 25-30% of the pot, that's a bargain... and

3- Even if you lose this additional 30% of the pot, it will work in your favor when you actually do have a hand... they might even raise you next time when you do have a hand, and you'll get paid off well...